Bulls, Bears and Market Sheep*
نویسندگان
چکیده
Much has been written about the efficiency of markets in general and of the market for equities in particular, and of its implications for the more-orless random-like behavior of stock prices. The conventional argument is that opportunistic trading by rational investors will arbitrage away any gains that can be made from predictable patterns; what is left are the perturbations in asset values caused by more-or-less random news. Recently, however, there has been a resurgence of interest in the role of psychological forces in the erratic market movements and especially in the precipitous drops in equity prices that occasionally follow prolonged advances such as occurred in the crash of 1929 or more recently in the Black Monday of October 1987. For example, Shiller (1987) argued that ‘the crash was related to the internal dynamics of investor thinking’. Beja and Goldman (1980, p. 235), remarking on an abundance of speculative activity, conclude that ‘almost surely such behavior has an effect on the dynamics of stock prices’. Smith et al. (1988) observed the emergence of psychologically generated bubbles in experimental, laboratory spot markets. To put the issue in more general terms, is it possible that observable features of stock market prices, such as their unpredictable, fluctuating nature and their tendency to generate alternating periods of generally rising or generally falling prices, so-called ‘bull’ and ‘bear’ markets that seem suddenly to switch from one to the other at irregular intervals, are derivable
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